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Escalation in Ukraine: Threats and Challenges Remain.

photo: Sasha Maksymenko, https://live-fts.flickr.com/photos/112078056@N07/13284739165/in/gallery-civiliansinconflict-72157719201954385/

Summary of the online event that brought voices from Kyiv and Donbas, both government-controlled and temporarily occupied territory. *  

The escalation in April when Russia amassed its troops at the Ukrainian border triggered the wave of renewed attention to Ukraine in the world. Nearly a month later, when the troops withdrew and the situation is widely considered as being ‘back to normal’, people living in the war’s epicentre underscore that it has never been normal in the last seven years of the active and deadly armed conflict in Donbas. 

In the end of May 2021, human rights defenders, peacebuilders, journalists and scholars from Ukraine, Russia and France discussed political, security, economic and humanitarian threats that persist in eastern Ukraine.  

‘Big picture’ from Kyiv: main points from Zelensky’s annual press-conference

While the Normandy format clearly remains the only framework where the resolution for the conflict can be sought, the President of Ukraine did not conceal his disappointment in Germany and France, calling for stronger joint efforts.

Zelensky presented an idea to decide on the way for the conflict resolution in a national referendum. Its possible framework and a question to be asked remained unspecified. 

To end the war has been Zelensky’s main [declared] goal from the onset of his campaign and his term in the office. Recently, he has focussed on a public fight with “Russian agents” inside the country. Mainly, through the sanctions against and prosecution of Viktor Medvedchuk and his close circle and shutting down media labelled as pro-Russian. 

Russia’s failing attempts to destabilize the situation in government-controlled Donbas 

In government-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine, the Russian stance seems to be weakening. At the local elections of 2020, the pro-Russian parties received twice less power compared to the results of the local elections in 2015. Thus, their political control over many towns in Donbas has been shaken. 

Meanwhile, local governments remain dysfunctional in several settlements due to internal conflicts, as in some locations the mayors (or the heads of local councils) and the deputies forming the majority belong to opposing political parties.  

Having lost some of its political dividends in the region, Russia is using hybrid methods to destabilize the situation. For example, having the alleged influence or even control over the gas distribution company in Donetsk region, in March, Russian forces orchestrated an attempt to cut gas and thus heating supplies to people’s homes. The attempt did not work, and the company faced sanctions from the Ukrainian government.  

Most recently, pro-Russian activists were organizing a commemoration event for Victory Day on 9 May, playing the usual card of the special patriotic feelings that should grow based on the narrative of the Soviet victory over Nazis. This narrative has long been used to unite post-Soviet space around the Soviet victory. In 2020, however, only 20 people took part in the ‘Immortal Battalion’ march in Sloviansk, a traditional event organized in Russia and by pro-Russian activists every year. This also shows the decrease in the influence of Russian narratives in the government-controlled area of eastern Ukraine. 

Ukrainian civil society calls on the Ukrainian government to undertake urgent measures to improve and renovate the infrastructure of ‘Voda Donbasa’, a key water supplier for millions of people on both sides of the contact line. The pipes are worn-out creating a risk of collapse. The worsening environmental situation of the industrial region also causes concerns among civil society.

“Either you receive a Russian passport, or you are fired”: stories from occupied Donetsk   

In the self-proclaimed “republics”, people live in a “different reality”: arrests became mundane, the curfew has been enforced for seven years already, public transport stops at 8pm. The more or less secure income is available only in the so-called ‘state sector’, when salaries are paid from the ‘state budget’. It means, however, that the ‘authorities’ have strings to pull when it comes to their communication with, for example, teachers and doctors. One of our speakers shared a story of teachers being called to a meeting and pushed to apply for a Russian passport. According to a source, as of May 4, over 270,000 applications to receive Russian passports have been filed adding up to half a million Donbas residents that have already been granted Russian citizenship. Donbas residents holding Russian passports will be able to participate in the elections to the Russian State Duma in September. “Russia may not integrate ‘DPR’ and ‘LPR’; it will digest them’ – our speaker said. 

In addition, the demography of Donbas is being destroyed. Many families are torn apart with breadwinners (mostly men) migrating to get jobs and earn money. In this reality, people think neither about Ukraine, nor about Russia: they care about survival and sustaining their families. It is crucial under these circumstances to send messages to these people that they belong to Ukraine and can count on the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian people.  

Acute need to ensure the simultaneous release of detainees 

According to the Ukrainian Ombudsperson, 280 Ukrainian citizens are currently illegally detained in the temporarily occupied areas in eastern Ukraine; 44 of them are military. The actual number of people behind the bars, according to human rights defenders, can be much higher. 

The last simultaneous release of detainees took place more than a year ago. With credible reports coming about the inhuman and degrading treatment of people deprived of liberty in the self-proclaimed ‘republics’, the need to simultaneously release everyone, or to exchange all for all is pressing.  

Narrowing opportunities for Russian civil society

Cooperation with Russian civil society is important to counter official propaganda about the Russian involvement in the war in Ukraine, and to promote the ideas of peace, international law and respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty within Russian society. However, the possibilities for democratic civil society organizations in Russia are very limited. In addition, they are preoccupied with numerous internal issues.

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* This online event was invitation-based and not recorded. All the facts and opinions presented here were delivered by the speakers. This compilation is anonymous, for security reasons. Additional information is available upon request. The presentation was organized under the auspices of the international civil society platform CivilMPlus and co-hosted by Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly (France), Luhansk Regional Human Rights Center ‘Alternative’ (Ukraine), Center for Civil Liberties (Ukraine), and International Partnership for Human Rights (Belgium). 

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